| Day Trading System |
|
Our cornerstone hypothesis a day and swing trading system basically dictates that in order for a stock to attract, maintain, and gain momentum, it has to first align two of the three realms of trading in the same direction. Let's assume that the whole world of trading consist of three realms or trading sectors: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and of course, the general public. The first group is the one like us who draw lines on charts and execute trades based on our interpretation. The second group will study an earnings report or dissect an annual report to justify their stock selections. And the third group consists of everyone else who trades stocks which is essentially the general public. "Quants" or quantitative and statistical financial types are in the first realm, technical analysis, and uses models and simulations, historical patterns and spreads, etc., to create a day and/or swing trading system to trade stocks. They usually work for hedge funds, arbitrage funds, derivative and options funds, leverage buyout groups, etc. Long-Term Capital Management, though now defunct, would be the poster boy here. Blackstone Group and KKR are also prime examples. The second group, fundamental analysis, consist of pension funds, labour funds, institutional investors, mutual funds, index funds, etc., who uses fundamental analysis for stock selections. Warren Buffett would be this group's spokesperson and other examples would be most of the funds from Fidelity, Putnam, Franklin Templeton, etc. And the last realm is the general public that trade stocks but is not in the financial sector or have it as a profession. Money moves stocks. Period. No money, no candy! The first two groups, technical and fundamental analysis "controls" the money to move stocks, buy out companies, engineer financial products, and especially, move markets. They usually have deep pockets and trade in the millions. The public, does not come close. The public is said to be "mostly wrong" which is true as the normal day goes like this. John or Jane Doe wakes up, turns on CNBC, hears that a Merrill analyst is "maintaining" the buy recommendation on Dotcom's stock after its earnings release, and calls his broker to buy. Simple. No technical or fundamental messing around as the broker is happy to get an unsolicited order. But the fundamental people deciphered that most of the profits came from a reduced tax rate so they start selling. The technical group then notices a break of the trend channel or trendline and they add to the selling as well as getting "technically" stopped out. The stock is now down 10 dollars and if all the professionals, (the first two realms), are selling, who's buying? Well my dear, it is the public! Since there is a "Chinese Wall" at brokerage houses between the traders and analysts, the former sell while what we hear most of the time from the latter group are oxymoronic statements! "We are maintaining the buy recommendation but have reduced the target!" "We have lowered the rating to a buy from a strong buy!" Or if they like to sit on the fence, they just say, "Hold." These "white lies" essentially keep the company happy for future financings by the brokerage houses' Corporate Finance division but for Mr. Public, he surmises that since it was not a "Sell!" but still a "buy" or "hold," and because he loved it at $50, a $10 discount at $40 must be a wonderful bargain! And this is the start of a downward spiral. This scenario repeats itself so very often but at the end, we all know where the stock will end up, right? We have all seen the analysts say "buy" all the way down with NorTel, Worldcom, etc. Our day and swing trading system bases itself upon the fact that when the technical and fundamental groups are in sync and aligned together, take the signals that trade in the same direction. Respect this trend regardless of what the brokerage houses say because what they say is only for the general public. The amount of money the first two realms can throw at a stock will cause the Apples, Googles, RIMs, etc., to go up several points in one day and at times, 10 or 20 points at a time. They will buy at the opening and continue to buy until the closing bell. They will move our positions and it is here where we choose these day and swing trading selections. This buying or selling power by the technical and fundamental groups underscores our trading system philosophy. If the money is not behind the trade, the trade will not go far. You now have a step up by reading this thesis and if you understand and embrace our proposals, leave the public realm and join us here in the technical camp to develop your day and swing trading system!
|
